The 10 Most Debated Questions of 2026
Big Questions, Big Uncertainties
2026 started as a turbulent year. The US-Iran war, a global energy crisis, breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, and political earthquakes. Each of these events is affecting billions of people. So what does the community think?
We compiled the 10 most popular markets on Pusulam and the community's predictions.
1. Will a Ceasefire Be Reached in Iran?
This is the biggest question of 2026. US and Israeli military operations against Iran began in February. The community currently sees the chances of a short-term ceasefire as low. Polymarket tells a similar story.
Key factors: the status of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, and whether diplomatic channels will open.
2. Will Bitcoin Reach $100,000?
Bitcoin entered 2026 around $70,000. The community puts the odds of hitting $100K by year's end at around 40%. The impact of the Iran war on energy markets, Fed interest rate decisions, and institutional investor moves will all be decisive.
3. Can AI Direct a Feature Film?
One of the highest-volume markets on Manifold Markets. The question is whether AI will be able to produce a full-length feature film by early 2028. The community gives it around 30% odds. Sora, Runway, and other video AI tools are advancing quickly, but a coherent 90-minute film still feels like a distant dream.
4. Will Putin Still Be in Power at the End of 2026?
86% of the community says yes. For Putin to fall from power, you'd need either a health crisis, a military coup, or an internal uprising. Right now, none of those seem to be on the horizon.
5. Will Trump Reclaim the Panama Canal?
An interesting market. Trump talking about the Panama Canal rhetorically is nothing new, but whether he'll actually take concrete steps remains unclear. The community gives it around 20% odds.
6. Will Elon Musk Reach a Trillion-Dollar Net Worth?
With Tesla, SpaceX, and X, Musk's wealth is already at record levels. The community sees a 85% chance of it reaching a trillion dollars. SpaceX's valuation will be the deciding factor.
7. Will the Iranian Regime Fall?
The biggest question of the US-Iran war: will military operations lead to regime change? The community says 31%. After Khamenei's death, his son Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed, but his legitimacy remains contested.
8. Can AI Write a Novel?
An acceptable-quality novel by 2028. The community gives it 75% odds. Short stories and poetry are already within reach, but consistent character development and plot structure at novel length are still a challenge.
9. Will There Be a Ceasefire in the Ukraine War?
It was one of Trump's campaign promises. But after the Iranian front opened up, Ukraine diplomacy faded into the background. The community puts the odds of a ceasefire at 23%.
10. Will Apple Release a Foldable iPhone?
By 2030. The community says 70%. Samsung and Huawei are already making foldable phones. Apple entering the space seems like a matter of when, not if, though Apple typically arrives late and gets it right.
Conclusion
These 10 questions capture the pulse of 2026. Each one is available as an open market on Pusulam. Join the community, make your prediction, and see if you get it right.
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