How CPMM Works, Why Early Prediction is Advantageous, How the Badge System Works? Everything You Need to Know to Start Using Pusulam

The Basic Logic

Prediction markets are actually pretty simple: there's a question, two possible answers (yes or no), and people vote on whichever outcome they think is correct. The more people pile onto one side, the higher that side's probability goes.

Say you open a market asking "Will the CBRT cut interest rates at the April meeting?" It starts at 50/50. Then people who follow the economy come in and vote. If the majority says "yes, they'll cut," the odds shift to 65/35. That number reflects the community's collective view.

The Vote Credit System

There's no real money on Pusulam. Instead, there are "Vote Credits." You get 3 added to your account every day, and you start with 50 when you sign up.

When you vote on a market, you spend Vote Credits. If your prediction is correct, you get back more than you spent. If you're wrong, you lose what you put in.

There's one key detail here: the lower the probability when you enter, the more you can win.

The Advantage of Getting In Early

Let's walk through an example.

Say there's a market asking "Will Bitcoin be above $90,000 at the end of April?" and the community is currently sitting at 25% yes. You do some research, you see certain signals, and you think 25% is too low. You put in 5 Vote Credits.

Because the probability is 25%, you get roughly 20 shares for those 5 Vote Credits. If Bitcoin actually climbs above $90,000, each share pays out 1 Vote Credit. So you spent 5 and got 20 back, for a net gain of 15.

But if you had entered the same market when the probability was at 75%, you would have gotten only 6 or 7 shares for your 5 Vote Credits. Your profit potential would be much smaller.

That's why being early and bold matters in prediction markets. Being on the right side before the crowd catches on is the strategy that pays the most.

How CPMM Works

Behind the scenes, there's a mechanism called CPMM (Constant Product Market Maker). This is the same system Manifold Markets uses. Here's the simple version:

There are two pools: a Yes Pool and a No Pool. Every time someone votes, the balance between the pools shifts and the price (probability) updates accordingly. The more people vote Yes, the higher the Yes probability goes.

You don't need to know the technical details. What you do need to know is this: the system is fair, automatic, and can't be manipulated by anyone.

The Badge and Reputation System

On Pusulam, you're not just making predictions, you're also building a reputation. There are 20 different badges:

First Victory: Your first correct prediction
Sharp Eye: 5 correct predictions
Oracle in Training: 20 correct predictions
Oracle: 50 correct predictions
Accurate Forecaster: 70%+ accuracy rate (with at least 10 resolved markets)

Each badge also comes with a Vote Credit reward. Bronze badges give +5, Silver +15, Gold +30, and Platinum +50 Vote Credits.

Tips

A few suggestions if you're just getting started:

Use the AI Assistant. There's an "Ask AI" button under every market. It analyzes the question using up-to-date data.
Don't try to go big right away. Get familiar with the system through smaller votes first.
Spread across multiple markets. Don't put everything on a single prediction.
Add your friends. You can see what they're predicting right in your feed.
Check in regularly. You get +3 Vote Credits every day, and there are streak badges for daily activity.

Get started