💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Elon Musk be the richest man on earth by the end of 2026?
Probability%41 Yes
14 people · MANIFOLD141 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 14:45 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Probability%54 Yes
277 people · MANIFOLD1326 d
Created by: 16 Mart 2026 11:40 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother season 28?
Probability%27 Yes
50 d
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Iran cease to exist in 2026?
Probability%4 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD141 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 14:46 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
What % of SlutCon attendees will be women?
Probability%23 Yes
20 people · MANIFOLD2d 16h
Created by: 2 Temmuz 2026 04:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
will trump die before halloween ends?
Probability%3 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 8 Ağustos 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Democrats win back the House in 2026 ?
Probability%91 Yes
42 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
49 d
Created by: 16 Temmuz 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of Mar 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD140 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 14:46 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
Probability%23 Yes
51 d
Created by: 7 Temmuz 2026 15:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Probability%20 Yes
38 d
Created by: 11 Temmuz 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Mike Beltran be the FL-14 Republican nominee?
Probability%34 Yes
6d 8h
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Probability%40 Yes
59 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 6 Ağustos 2026 05:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]
Probability%4 Yes
552 people · MANIFOLD19d 7h
Created by: 8 Haziran 2026 01:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
OpenAI releases model with 5M+ context by end of March 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD140 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:42 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
54 people · MANIFOLD140 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:42 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Primoz Roglic start any professional cycling races after Tour de Romandie 2026 and before La Vuelta 2026?
Probability%91 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD2d 8h
Created by: 1 Haziran 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be alive on December 31 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD141 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:44 GMT+3
Open
Will JJ Abrams direct a movie in the 2020s?
Probability%96 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD140 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:43 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Turkey's population exceed 86 million by end of 2026?
Probability%50 Yes
141 d
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Putin still be in power by the end of 2026?
Probability%44 Yes
95 people · MANIFOLD140 d
Created by: 16 Mart 2026 11:40 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026?
Probability%23 Yes
32 people · MANIFOLD19d 6h
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Trump apologize for bombing Iranian school?
Probability%5 Yes
141 people · MANIFOLD140 d
Created by: 16 Mart 2026 11:40 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?
Probability%47 Yes
45 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Imu will be stronger than Blackbeard AND the final villain of One Piece
Probability%34 Yes
173 people · MANIFOLD51 d
Created by: 16 Temmuz 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Republicans win at least one of ME/MN/NC Senate seats in 2026?
Probability%41 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD84 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?
Probability%63 Yes
53 d
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?
Probability%15 Yes
17 people · MANIFOLD31 d
Created by: 7 Temmuz 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $446,000 on September 30?
Probability%37 Yes
48 d
Created by: 6 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
Probability%8 Yes
34 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 17 Temmuz 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
Probability%98 Yes
26d 8h
Created by: 8 Temmuz 2026 01:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
Probability%8 Yes
1d 8h
Created by: 15 Temmuz 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?
Probability%16 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 6 Ağustos 2026 12:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?
Probability%43 Yes
37 people · MANIFOLD19d 7h
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 16:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026?
Probability%93 Yes
37 people · MANIFOLD19d 6h
Created by: 1 Temmuz 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
Probability%18 Yes
48 d
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026?
Probability%68 Yes
73 people · MANIFOLD55 d
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?
Probability%31 Yes
45 people · MANIFOLD58 d
Created by: 17 Temmuz 2026 10:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will GTA 6 require more than 200gb of space on PC.
Probability%66 Yes
58 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 3 Temmuz 2026 09:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the percent of Pakistanis in extreme poverty be above 5 percent in 2023?
Probability%87 Yes
38 people · MANIFOLD20d 7h
Created by: 3 Temmuz 2026 09:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Kalshi beat Polymarket?
Probability%52 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD43 d
Created by: 3 Temmuz 2026 09:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Probability%46 Yes
49 d
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Zoro kill/defeat a Gorosei?
Probability%56 Yes
99 people · MANIFOLD40 d
Created by: 1 Temmuz 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
Probability%44 Yes
3d 8h
Created by: 6 Ağustos 2026 14:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?
Probability%9 Yes
37 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 3 Temmuz 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? [Polymarket]
Probability%18 Yes
396 people · MANIFOLD140 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:42 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?
Probability%67 Yes
28 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?
Probability%48 Yes
277 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 6 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will at least 10 UK riot related prosecutions be overturned or have their sentences shortened in the next 2 years?
Probability%24 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD07:35:50
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?
Probability%78 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD25d 8h
Created by: 2 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?
Probability%3 Yes
36 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 8 Temmuz 2026 07:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?
Probability%97 Yes
56 people · MANIFOLD56 d
Created by: 15 Temmuz 2026 14:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
38 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 3 Temmuz 2026 18:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Claude Haiku gets deprecated in the next 3 months?
Probability%36 Yes
41 people · MANIFOLD54 d
Created by: 12 Temmuz 2026 01:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?
Probability%2 Yes
30 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 3 Temmuz 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Netanyahu still be the prime minister of Israel at the end of October 7th 2026?
Probability%98 Yes
60 people · MANIFOLD56 d
Created by: 12 Temmuz 2026 00:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Dario Amodei still be CEO of Anthropic by the end of August 2026?
Probability%95 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD19d 15h
Created by: 4 Temmuz 2026 00:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will temperatures in Berlin, Germany, reach 40°C this summer?
Probability%20 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 12 Temmuz 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Probability%2 Yes
48 d
Created by: 8 Temmuz 2026 09:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?
Probability%91 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 12 Temmuz 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will 50% or more of AWS developers stop coding for AWS in the next 24 months?
Probability%8 Yes
43 people · MANIFOLD28d 11h
Created by: 8 Temmuz 2026 15:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is "by far [his] biggest yet"? (Resolves to poll)
Probability%24 Yes
94 people · MANIFOLD7d 15h
Created by: 4 Temmuz 2026 02:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Probability%38 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 08:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?
Probability%47 Yes
60 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 8 Temmuz 2026 16:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?
Probability%66 Yes
68 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Dwarkesh's mystery guest revealed by Aug 21, 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD9d 8h
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 16:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran before September?
Probability%12 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 2 Ağustos 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
Probability%11 Yes
6d 8h
Created by: 8 Temmuz 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Lebron James and Anthony Davis both join the Golden State Warriors before next season?
Probability%10 Yes
14 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 4 Temmuz 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?
Probability%97 Yes
48 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will James Fishback win the Florida Republican Primary?
Probability%4 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD20d 8h
Created by: 1 Temmuz 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?
Probability%86 Yes
12 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro either be elected president of Brazil or be the runner up in the 2026 presidential election?
Probability%5 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD75 d
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys?
Probability%73 Yes
33 d
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 14:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses over $2B?
Probability%95 Yes
79 people · MANIFOLD71 d
Created by: 2 Ağustos 2026 11:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?
Probability%75 Yes
33 d
Created by: 18 Temmuz 2026 13:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?
Probability%77 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 3 Haziran 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will all 18 "safe" Senate seats be won by their incumbent parties?
Probability%66 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD82 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?
Probability%4 Yes
54 people · MANIFOLD45 d
Created by: 3 Temmuz 2026 17:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Republican Party win the OR-06 House seat?
Probability%2 Yes
82 d
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the AfD win an absolute majority in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt in 2026
Probability%36 Yes
25 people · MANIFOLD25d 0h
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 15:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?
Probability%31 Yes
48 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Trump proclaims a 'Straight Pride month' by August 2026?
Probability%6 Yes
27 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 6 Haziran 2026 09:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Claude Opus 4.6 have more than 2,500 Manifold Mana by August 13, 2026?
Probability%95 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD1d 5h
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 19:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
Probability%8 Yes
18d 8h
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 17:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
Probability%7 Yes
51 d
Created by: 5 Temmuz 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will "Beef" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
Probability%41 Yes
33 d
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 16:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will national gas prices in the US average above $3.60
Probability%86 Yes
33 people · MANIFOLD79 d
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 16:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?
Probability%41 Yes
33 d
Created by: 19 Temmuz 2026 07:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?
Probability%57 Yes
110 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest domestic lifetime gross of all time?
Probability%64 Yes
62 people · MANIFOLD53 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 19:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Eli Goldfine go to Manifest this year?
Probability%97 Yes
23 people · MANIFOLD17d 22h
Created by: 8 Haziran 2026 15:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
Probability%97 Yes
2d 14h
Created by: 13 Temmuz 2026 07:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
Probability%4 Yes
64 people · MANIFOLD19d 12h
Created by: 7 Haziran 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in August?
Probability%45 Yes
19d 12h
Created by: 6 Ağustos 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
In a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflation
Probability%55 Yes
20 people · MANIFOLD24d 0h
Created by: 7 Haziran 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Jerry Demings be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?
Probability%2 Yes
5d 8h
Created by: 12 Haziran 2026 05:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?
Probability%16 Yes
32 people · MANIFOLD19d 12h
Created by: 12 Haziran 2026 16:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026?
Probability%12 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD19d 6h
Created by: 18 Haziran 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will California be in a drought at end of August 2026?
Probability%14 Yes
23 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 11 Haziran 2026 12:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability%94 Yes
26d 8h
Created by: 6 Temmuz 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
Probability%4 Yes
49 d
Created by: 13 Temmuz 2026 13:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?
Probability%75 Yes
39 people · MANIFOLD35 d
Created by: 2 Ağustos 2026 16:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?
Probability%53 Yes
20d 12h
Created by: 19 Haziran 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Probability%3 Yes
52 d
Created by: 12 Temmuz 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Fable be available for a continuous 30 days on the subscription plan between July 15 and October 31?
Probability%97 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD2d 8h
Created by: 18 Temmuz 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
Probability%75 Yes
5d 8h
Created by: 12 Haziran 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Clarity Act will pass in September
Probability%19 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?
Probability%16 Yes
82 d
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup
Probability%63 Yes
20 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 1 Temmuz 2026 15:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026?
Probability%69 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?
Probability%10 Yes
14 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Mike Johnson gone as House speaker before Nov 3 2026?
Probability%12 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 19:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?
Probability%12 Yes
17 people · MANIFOLD20d 15h
Created by: 12 Ağustos 2026 07:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?
Probability%71 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 6 Ağustos 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Probability%24 Yes
38 d
Created by: 8 Temmuz 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?
Probability%48 Yes
33 people · MANIFOLD39 d
Created by: 7 Temmuz 2026 23:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Brian Kemp run for the Georgia U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 8 Ağustos 2026 11:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
With the new peace talks with Iran, will interest rate rates lower in the next eight weeks?
Probability%2 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD2d 2h
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Probability%3 Yes
52 d
Created by: 6 Temmuz 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will a Monopoly movie release by end of August 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
44 people · MANIFOLD19d 15h
Created by: 3 Haziran 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
Probability%67 Yes
33 d
Created by: 19 Temmuz 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
California Voter ID ballot proposition passes?
Probability%30 Yes
76 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 12 Ağustos 2026 08:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
SSI public model released by August 31, 2026?
Probability%16 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 22:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?
Probability%50 Yes
22 people · MANIFOLD33 d
Created by: 14 Temmuz 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Probability%22 Yes
31 d
Created by: 18 Haziran 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
US regain control over Bagram air base in Afghanistan by August 2026?
Probability%11 Yes
14 people · MANIFOLD18d 8h
Created by: 18 Haziran 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Sydney Sweeney partners with Polymarket before September?
Probability%4 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 20:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?
Probability%47 Yes
34 d
Created by: 10 Ağustos 2026 13:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?
Probability%87 Yes
5d 8h
Created by: 18 Haziran 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
Probability%36 Yes
49 d
Created by: 7 Temmuz 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will there be new US-Iran peace talks before August 31?
Probability%19 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD18d 8h
Created by: 9 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will testosterone for transgender HRT be available in the US on 2026-08-01?
Probability%93 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD3d 14h
Created by: 18 Mayıs 2026 11:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will twitter / x.com be open source before September?
Probability%10 Yes
152 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 21:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?
Probability%78 Yes
48 d
Created by: 10 Temmuz 2026 12:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Rudy Giuliani flip on Trump in the Georgia case?
Probability%5 Yes
32 people · MANIFOLD2d 0h
Created by: 18 Haziran 2026 21:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Mitch Mcconnell be declared dead by September 30, 2026?
Probability%7 Yes
48 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 14 Temmuz 2026 17:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?
Probability%56 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 2 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
Probability%9 Yes
21 people · MANIFOLD79 d
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Israel and Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations before Israel's elections?
Probability%9 Yes
20 people · MANIFOLD75 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 02:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
Probability%53 Yes
52 d
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
Probability%75 Yes
27 people · MANIFOLD62 d
Created by: 18 Temmuz 2026 13:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Elijah Manley be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?
Probability%23 Yes
5d 8h
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 05:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Republican Party win the MA-05 House seat?
Probability%5 Yes
82 d
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026
Probability%20 Yes
24 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 8 Ağustos 2026 11:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Is MCU Dr. Doom a Tony Stark variant?
Probability%58 Yes
34 people · MANIFOLD84 d
Created by: 8 Ağustos 2026 00:15 GMT+3
Open
Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
240 people · MANIFOLD1d 7h
Created by: 16 Mayıs 2026 14:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Probability%16 Yes
38 d
Created by: 18 Temmuz 2026 15:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?
Probability%30 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD20d 7h
Created by: 5 Haziran 2026 12:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?
Probability%36 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026
Probability%6 Yes
36 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?
Probability%14 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?
Probability%85 Yes
08:36:50
Created by: 2 Ağustos 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Troy Jackson wins 2026 US Senate election in Maine?
Probability%65 Yes
34 people · MANIFOLD84 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 07:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will there be a confirmed case of Cyclosporiasis in ALL 48 US contiguous states before the end of August 2026?
Probability%35 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD34 d
Created by: 2 Ağustos 2026 07:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
Probability%90 Yes
75 d
Created by: 10 Ağustos 2026 00:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the wsp.kbtu.kz site go down during schedule registration on August 17?
Probability%70 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD5d 8h
Created by: 8 Ağustos 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)
Probability%93 Yes
65 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?
Probability%26 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD69 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will any of OpenAI’s “Ten Advances in Math and Theoretical CS” be proven flawed by the end of August?
Probability%9 Yes
39 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 1 Ağustos 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Andrew Tate be in jail through the end of August?
Probability%91 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 2 Ağustos 2026 08:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?
Probability%18 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Probability%10 Yes
39 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 13 Temmuz 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Kalafina appear in Puella Magi Madoka Magica: Walpurgisnacht Rising?
Probability%26 Yes
12 people · MANIFOLD15d 5h
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 01:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?
Probability%6 Yes
34 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Trump wear glasses in August?
Probability%11 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 8 Ağustos 2026 21:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Laurence Fox get second place in the Clacton by-election?
Probability%4 Yes
1d 0h
Created by: 2 Ağustos 2026 23:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?
Probability%60 Yes
21d 8h
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 02:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will there be widespread political unrest in the US in the summer of 2026 similar to summer of 2020?
Probability%4 Yes
21 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 4 Haziran 2026 15:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st?
Probability%41 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD18d 8h
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 04:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in August 2026?
Probability%12 Yes
33 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 8 Ağustos 2026 16:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?
Probability%3 Yes
22 people · MANIFOLD42 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?
Probability%56 Yes
33 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 02:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time?
Probability%95 Yes
51 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 02:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Probability%64 Yes
8d 8h
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 05:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Jason Arday's 'Great and Unfortunate Things' be available for purchase in the UK on or before August 27, 2026?
Probability%90 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD15d 8h
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 05:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?
Probability%7 Yes
1d 8h
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 12:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
SPY 900 by Sep 18 2026?
Probability%4 Yes
10 people · MANIFOLD37 d
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will a US senator die before October 1st?
Probability%13 Yes
28 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Astra solve Elliot Glazer's prototype FrontierMath problem?
Probability%24 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD19d 7h
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Kizaru betray/defect the Marines?
Probability%59 Yes
934 people · MANIFOLD79 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 13:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
Probability%19 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 3 Temmuz 2026 07:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Paul Seixas defeat Tadej Pogacar in any race during the 2026 season?
Probability%22 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD74 d
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 07:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
Probability%9 Yes
52 d
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 21:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Kimi K3 be open source on the 13th August?
Probability%98 Yes
25 people · MANIFOLD07:36:50
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 21:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️⚧️✨
Probability%39 Yes
189 people · MANIFOLD81 d
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?
Probability%20 Yes
80 people · MANIFOLD69 d
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Chris Hipkins lead the NZ Labour Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
Probability%86 Yes
27 people · MANIFOLD62 d
Created by: 3 Ağustos 2026 05:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
Probability%34 Yes
21 people · MANIFOLD85 d
Created by: 8 Ağustos 2026 04:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain?
Probability%18 Yes
20d 12h
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election?
Probability%49 Yes
53 d
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene publicly reconcile with Donald Trump before her November 3, 2026 reelection?
Probability%11 Yes
25 people · MANIFOLD82 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 09:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?
Probability%7 Yes
267 people · MANIFOLD20d 8h
Created by: 4 Haziran 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
By end of 2026, will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court?
Probability%6 Yes
33 people · MANIFOLD19d 5h
Created by: 11 Haziran 2026 17:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Talarico outperform Beto O'Rourke in the 2026 US Senate Election in Texas?
Probability%67 Yes
22 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 14:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will there be a Assassination attempt on Elon Musks life between now and the mid terms of 2026.
Probability%17 Yes
33 people · MANIFOLD84 d
Created by: 8 Ağustos 2026 23:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?
Probability%30 Yes
49 d
Created by: 9 Ağustos 2026 10:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will ELK still be a major problem by Oct 20, 2026 (according to me)?
Probability%84 Yes
34 people · MANIFOLD69 d
Created by: 9 Ağustos 2026 10:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?
Probability%73 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 8 Ağustos 2026 08:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will MNX have $1m in volume before September 2026?
Probability%37 Yes
51 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 9 Haziran 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will TD Ierlan win the 2026 PLL Face-Off Player of the Year?
Probability%25 Yes
31 d
Created by: 10 Ağustos 2026 12:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?
Probability%62 Yes
86 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 6 Ağustos 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?
Probability%38 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD68 d
Created by: 10 Ağustos 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?
Probability%75 Yes
22 people · MANIFOLD86 d
Created by: 10 Ağustos 2026 12:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?
Probability%74 Yes
44 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 9 Ağustos 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
On 27th August, will the in/out price for Kimi K3 on Openrouter be below $2 / $10 per 1M tokens?
Probability%19 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD15d 8h
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 05:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will any of OpenAI, Anthropic, or Databricks go public with a market cap over $200B by August 15, 2026?
Probability%4 Yes
17 people · MANIFOLD5d 8h
Created by: 10 Haziran 2026 20:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September
Probability%33 Yes
54 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 9 Haziran 2026 04:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027
Probability%61 Yes
90 people · MANIFOLD51 d
Created by: 5 Temmuz 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
Probability%42 Yes
5d 8h
Created by: 10 Ağustos 2026 02:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Probability%13 Yes
53 d
Created by: 10 Ağustos 2026 05:16 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Nithya Raman win Novembers LA Mayor election?
Probability%38 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD84 d
Created by: 10 Ağustos 2026 05:16 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?
Probability%94 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 10 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 10-16?
Probability%38 Yes
4d 12h
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Apple stock go up?
Probability%86 Yes
34 people · MANIFOLD2d 5h
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Abdul El Sayed and Francesca Hong both win their primaries?
Probability%4 Yes
88 people · MANIFOLD08:35:50
Created by: 4 Ağustos 2026 22:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" reach $850M domestic gross by September 13, 2026?
Probability%89 Yes
10 people · MANIFOLD32 d
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 02:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Ashwin returns to US by Aug 19th 2026?
Probability%69 Yes
10 people · MANIFOLD7d 8h
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Joe Biden die before the 2028 presidential election (Nov. 7 2028)?
Probability%57 Yes
40 people · MANIFOLD87 d
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 07:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Probability%5 Yes
37 people · MANIFOLD73 d
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 01:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?
Probability%37 Yes
37 d
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 10:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Probability%12 Yes
22 people · MANIFOLD69 d
Created by: 2 Ağustos 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will somebody get legally married at the SF Pursuit finale?
Probability%54 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD08:35:50
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 17:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Senate race in North Carolina?
Probability%90 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD85 d
Created by: 12 Ağustos 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
Probability%31 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 19:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?
Probability%15 Yes
24 people · MANIFOLD19d 8h
Created by: 17 Haziran 2026 08:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?
Probability%17 Yes
33 d
Created by: 11 Ağustos 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
If James Talarico is the Democratic nominee, will he win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Probability%48 Yes
46 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 12 Ağustos 2026 14:16 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will a Republican win the Florida governorship in 2026?
Probability%82 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD82 d
Created by: 12 Ağustos 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
IF there is a special senate election before November in South Carolina, will a Democrat win it?
Probability%12 Yes
10 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 12 Ağustos 2026 00:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?
Probability%82 Yes
19d 8h
Created by: 12 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?
Probability%80 Yes
5d 8h
Created by: 5 Ağustos 2026 21:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
IF Democrats win the senate, will Chuck Schumer be their leader?
Probability%60 Yes
38 people · MANIFOLD83 d
Created by: 12 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Democratic House seats after 2026 election? (200-250, linear)
Probability%54 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD82 d
Created by: 7 Ağustos 2026 18:15 GMT+3