💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Elon Musk be the richest man on earth by the end of 2026?
Probability%41 Yes
14 people · MANIFOLD234 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 14:45 GMT+3
Open
Will the US or Israel occupy Kharg Island (Iran) before June 1, 2026?
Probability%63 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:40 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Probability%54 Yes
277 people · MANIFOLD1419 d
Created by: 16 Mart 2026 11:40 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be confirmed alive before June 1st?
Probability%93 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 02:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
Probability%2 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 27 Mart 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will some type of attack happen at the Citi Bank building in Los Angeles by May 31, 2026?
Probability%9 Yes
5 people · MANIFOLD19d 13h
Created by: 23 Mart 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 15:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Nicolaus Sleister be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?
Probability%2 Yes
35 d
Created by: 24 Mart 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?
Probability%37 Yes
22d 13h
Created by: 5 Nisan 2026 02:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Israel wins Eurovision 2026?
Probability%5 Yes
35 people · MANIFOLD18d 12h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will two Republicans win in California's June 2026 gubernatorial primary?
Probability%4 Yes
17 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 09:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 in May?
Probability%57 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
Probability%11 Yes
36 d
Created by: 23 Mart 2026 14:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May?
Probability%37 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Sweden advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Probability%96 Yes
13:40:13
Created by: 23 Mart 2026 15:15 GMT+3
Open
Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?
Probability%28 Yes
65 people · MANIFOLD19d 20h
Created by: 31 Mart 2026 22:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will NASA award a contract to a new commercial partner to develop a spacesuit by mid 2026?
Probability%9 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD21d 3h
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Probability%9 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 19 Nisan 2026 02:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial election?
Probability%91 Yes
22d 13h
Created by: 13 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will CSK win IPL 2026
Probability%8 Yes
22 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 29 Mart 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Probability%14 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 26 Mart 2026 15:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Ro Khanna finish in first place in the Ca-17 primary?
Probability%95 Yes
12 people · MANIFOLD23d 13h
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 01:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Kesha represent the US at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 21 Mart 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Named storm before start of Atlantic hurricane season
Probability%15 Yes
14 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Thomas Massie wins Kentucky's 4th Republican primary in 2026?
Probability%63 Yes
145 people · MANIFOLD7d 14h
Created by: 24 Mart 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%76 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 26 Mart 2026 15:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2026?
Probability%13 Yes
17 people · MANIFOLD51 d
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 02:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Morgan Cephas be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?
Probability%4 Yes
7d 13h
Created by: 23 Mart 2026 16:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
Probability%83 Yes
7d 13h
Created by: 7 Nisan 2026 05:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against New Jersey?
Probability%89 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD21d 12h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 13:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Iran cease to exist in 2026?
Probability%4 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD234 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 14:46 GMT+3
Open
GTA VI will have a mission involving the launch of a spaceship (probably belonging to a satirical billionaire)
Probability%72 Yes
28 people · MANIFOLD20d 12h
Created by: 31 Mart 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?
Probability%83 Yes
7d 13h
Created by: 27 Mart 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
Probability%29 Yes
33 d
Created by: 16 Nisan 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Vladimir Putin be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?
Probability%81 Yes
135 people · MANIFOLD20d 14h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 21:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?
Probability%57 Yes
7d 13h
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 12:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
Probability%8 Yes
49 d
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 12:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Next Fed chair to have a degree in economics?
Probability%5 Yes
32 people · MANIFOLD20d 12h
Created by: 10 Nisan 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Was Alexei Navalny killed [see description]?
Probability%82 Yes
39 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 12:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?
Probability%10 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?
Probability%13 Yes
50 d
Created by: 2 Nisan 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%36 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 27 Mart 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?
Probability%24 Yes
22d 13h
Created by: 27 Mart 2026 14:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will President Trump put "boots on the ground" in Iran before July 4, 2026?
Probability%98 Yes
56 people · MANIFOLD53 d
Created by: 5 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the People Power Party win 3 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
Probability%45 Yes
22d 13h
Created by: 24 Mart 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?
Probability%63 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 29 Mart 2026 02:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?
Probability%3 Yes
42 d
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
The US takes Military Action against Cuba by end of May 2026
Probability%16 Yes
36 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 13:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
Probability%97 Yes
49 d
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 15:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Trump announces at least 10% reduction in troops in Germany before May 16th
Probability%97 Yes
21 people · MANIFOLD4d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 10:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the winner of Eurovision 2026 come from Europe?
Probability%89 Yes
32 people · MANIFOLD5d 13h
Created by: 21 Mart 2026 19:11 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?
Probability%31 Yes
13:40:13
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Amouranth divorced by June 30?
Probability%11 Yes
49 d
Created by: 17 Nisan 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Musk pay the salaries of TSA agents during shutdown?
Probability%3 Yes
52 people · MANIFOLD11d 1h
Created by: 23 Mart 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Kathy Dolter be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02?
Probability%9 Yes
21d 13h
Created by: 24 Mart 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Kristi Noem win the South Dakota Republican primary for Senate in 2026?
Probability%5 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD22d 13h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 05:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?
Probability%97 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 4 Nisan 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
Probability%5 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 25 Mart 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Hossein Deghan still be alive on June 1st 2026?
Probability%56 Yes
7 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 21 Mart 2026 19:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be hacked within 12 months of its release date?
Probability%7 Yes
141 people · MANIFOLD24d 12h
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 15:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest?
Probability%26 Yes
44 people · MANIFOLD32 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Probability%26 Yes
8d 13h
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?
Probability%49 Yes
15d 13h
Created by: 23 Mart 2026 14:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
How likely is the farm bill to pass with the save our bacon act provision?
Probability%8 Yes
35 people · MANIFOLD18d 0h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as president of Ukraine in the next election?
Probability%32 Yes
60 people · MANIFOLD20d 14h
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 19:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Probability%4 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 24 Mart 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Trump attack Cuba before July 4, 2026?
Probability%11 Yes
34 people · MANIFOLD54 d
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 15:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will JD Vance enter Iran by June 30?
Probability%3 Yes
49 d
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 02:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Probability%11 Yes
22d 13h
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 02:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 13:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Can i do 100 days of tango under 1 minute (LinkedIn game) second try
Probability%40 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD65 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?
Probability%37 Yes
18d 19h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will MNX hire a quant trader before June?
Probability%85 Yes
66 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
The Catholic Church releases a religious LLM before June 2026
Probability%4 Yes
14 people · MANIFOLD21d 20h
Created by: 21 Mart 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will the US and China be at war by July 4th?
Probability%4 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD54 d
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 20:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be $300B or greater at market close on IPO day?
Probability%2 Yes
49 d
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 16:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Joe Johnson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
Probability%4 Yes
7d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?
Probability%36 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 17:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
Probability%4 Yes
22d 13h
Created by: 28 Mart 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of Mar 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD233 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 14:46 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Probability%37 Yes
49 d
Created by: 7 Nisan 2026 22:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will there be more software developers employed in the United States in June 2026 than June 2025?
Probability%54 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 25 Mart 2026 19:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Donald Trump turn 80?
Probability%96 Yes
42 people · MANIFOLD34 d
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 22:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 27 Mart 2026 01:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?
Probability%15 Yes
52 people · MANIFOLD81 d
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 01:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31?
Probability%5 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 29 Mart 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Probability%42 Yes
8d 13h
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 0.3%?
Probability%8 Yes
2d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will the Gaza death toll be over 150,000 at the end of the Israel-Hamas war
Probability%69 Yes
82 people · MANIFOLD20d 19h
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:44 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?
Probability%95 Yes
154 people · MANIFOLD79 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Volodomyr Zelenskyy be in power at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war?
Probability%76 Yes
180 people · MANIFOLD20d 14h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 21:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Probability%44 Yes
21d 13h
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Kash Patel remains FBI Director on June 30, 2026
Probability%54 Yes
37 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 04:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?
Probability%7 Yes
18d 19h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Steam Machine base model more expensive than PS5 Pro at launch?
Probability%84 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 7 Nisan 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the Taylor swift wedding be rescheduled at least one time. (Will it not happen on June 13th)
Probability%82 Yes
24 people · MANIFOLD33 d
Created by: 31 Mart 2026 13:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability%7 Yes
28d 13h
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
Probability%70 Yes
49 d
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026?
Probability%43 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD20d 9h
Created by: 23 Mart 2026 09:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will The New York Times win its copyright infringement suit against OpenAI and Microsoft?
Probability%58 Yes
53 people · MANIFOLD20d 19h
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 14:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%14 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 27 Mart 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?
Probability%94 Yes
13:40:13
Created by: 31 Mart 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Department of Education abolished by July 4, 2026
Probability%6 Yes
33 people · MANIFOLD53 d
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 05:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05?
Probability%22 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
Probability%43 Yes
84 d
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 05:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will spy be worth more than $436 on May 12 2026?
Probability%96 Yes
23 people · MANIFOLD1d 19h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 00:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Probability%21 Yes
8d 13h
Created by: 27 Mart 2026 21:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
OpenAI releases model with 5M+ context by end of March 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD233 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:42 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?
Probability%9 Yes
82 people · MANIFOLD21d 20h
Created by: 25 Mart 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi still be alive by June 1st 2026?
Probability%49 Yes
24 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 21 Mart 2026 19:11 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
54 people · MANIFOLD233 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:42 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will an Iranian ballistic missile strike the US/UK base at Diego Garcia before June 1st 2026?
Probability%21 Yes
5 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 05:15 GMT+3
Open
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Probability%4 Yes
36 d
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Is this either Luffy or Quagmire? (Fortnite trailer speculation)
Probability%19 Yes
38 people · MANIFOLD48 d
Created by: 4 Nisan 2026 04:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
Probability%6 Yes
35 d
Created by: 29 Mart 2026 13:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be alive on December 31 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD234 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:44 GMT+3
Open
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability%79 Yes
49 d
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Probability%4 Yes
49 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Iranian Minister of Interior Eskandar Momeni still be alive by June 1st 2026?
Probability%44 Yes
6 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 01:16 GMT+3
Open
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Probability%6 Yes
49 d
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
At the end of the war, will Ukraine control any territory they didn’t control at the start?
Probability%14 Yes
300 people · MANIFOLD20d 14h
Created by: 23 Mart 2026 02:15 GMT+3
Open
Will JJ Abrams direct a movie in the 2020s?
Probability%96 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD233 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:43 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig?
Probability%88 Yes
12d 13h
Created by: 2 Nisan 2026 05:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?
Probability%11 Yes
22d 13h
Created by: 28 Mart 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Turkey's population exceed 86 million by end of 2026?
Probability%50 Yes
234 d
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Mojtaba Khamenei Supreme Leader of Iran on July 1st, 2026
Probability%91 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 2 Nisan 2026 12:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?
Probability%3 Yes
26d 13h
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 14:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Putin still be in power by the end of 2026?
Probability%44 Yes
95 people · MANIFOLD233 d
Created by: 16 Mart 2026 11:40 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Mark Meadows change his plea to guilty in Fulton County?
Probability%5 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD20d 17h
Created by: 21 Mart 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Probability%87 Yes
36 d
Created by: 28 Mart 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Manifold look positively at the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sides on June 21st 2025 at their anniversary?
Probability%43 Yes
30 people · MANIFOLD41 d
Created by: 25 Mart 2026 08:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?
Probability%11 Yes
48 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 2 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?
Probability%4 Yes
22d 13h
Created by: 27 Mart 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Probability%8 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Graham Platner and James Talarico both win their primaries?
Probability%91 Yes
150 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 04:15 GMT+3
Open
Starmer out before July?
Probability%33 Yes
334 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 2 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
Probability%10 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Probability%10 Yes
49 d
Created by: 17 Nisan 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Trump apologize for bombing Iranian school?
Probability%5 Yes
141 people · MANIFOLD233 d
Created by: 16 Mart 2026 11:40 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 2 Nisan 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Biden ranked below W Bush in next C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey
Probability%22 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD52 d
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 12:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%43 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 06:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?
Probability%27 Yes
49 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will a human visit the Jovian System before the end of Season Five of For All Mankind?
Probability%7 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD21d 5h
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 20:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
Probability%60 Yes
293 people · MANIFOLD81 d
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 02:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will A-Levels get cancelled in GCC
Probability%9 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD08:56:13
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 13:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
West coast best coast (in math olympiads)?
Probability%7 Yes
46 people · MANIFOLD81 d
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 04:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Probability%33 Yes
49 d
Created by: 4 Nisan 2026 23:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
49 d
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 02:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?
Probability%88 Yes
36 people · MANIFOLD54 d
Created by: 16 Nisan 2026 11:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Andrej Karpathy and Elon back working together by mid 2026
Probability%11 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?
Probability%17 Yes
42 people · MANIFOLD20d 20h
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election?
Probability%94 Yes
8d 13h
Created by: 13 Nisan 2026 05:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?
Probability%26 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?
Probability%44 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Same city wins 2+ major sports championships (2025-2026)?
Probability%11 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 07:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Tesla announce the “Model 2” (sub-$30k EV) before July 1, 2026?
Probability%8 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 2 Nisan 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?
Probability%4 Yes
50 d
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Trump Die Before June 30th 2026
Probability%5 Yes
22 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 5 Nisan 2026 13:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Female AI love bot: ChadGPT
Probability%39 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD35 d
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
Open
Will the Russo-Ukrainian war end within a month if Putin dies
Probability%53 Yes
35 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026
Probability%84 Yes
35 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 5 Nisan 2026 06:15 GMT+3
Open
Has Elon Musk been bought by Russia?
Probability%18 Yes
77 people · MANIFOLD40 d
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Kash Patel out by April 30?
Probability%16 Yes
49 d
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 16:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before June 5, 2026? [read description]
Probability%5 Yes
27 people · MANIFOLD24d 18h
Created by: 5 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?
Probability%86 Yes
8d 13h
Created by: 5 Nisan 2026 02:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Kazakhstan be classified as a "hybrid regime" by 2025?
Probability%4 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD56 d
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Sweden be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%39 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 10 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Wrexham stay in the championship?
Probability%97 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 07:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
Probability%4 Yes
7d 13h
Created by: 25 Mart 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Probability%85 Yes
20d 5h
Created by: 10 Nisan 2026 04:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?
Probability%11 Yes
20 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Network Ten (Australia), The Cheap Seats, mention Manifold Markets before the end of June 2026?
Probability%7 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 09:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?
Probability%10 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
Open
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Probability%23 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 08:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%64 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
Open
Will canadian dollars drop below $0.70 usd before June 2026
Probability%12 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 5 Nisan 2026 15:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability%70 Yes
28d 13h
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 14:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Anthropic 'falls behind' by July 2026?
Probability%10 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Starmer be in the process of leaving at start of July?
Probability%12 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 16:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?
Probability%8 Yes
78 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 02:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%76 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 04:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Africa be a global power house in the nest few months
Probability%13 Yes
40 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 6 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will any current Labour MP call for Keir Starmer to stand down after the local elections?
Probability%94 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD3d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 12:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?
Probability%49 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 03:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Anthropic 60B revenue annual run rate on July 6, 2026?
Probability%52 Yes
40 people · MANIFOLD56 d
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?
Probability%11 Yes
24 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 04:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
Probability%23 Yes
49 d
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 05:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%85 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 14:15 GMT+3
Open
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?
Probability%14 Yes
13d 13h
Created by: 7 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
Open
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?
Probability%88 Yes
13d 13h
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 16:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026
Probability%18 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will any of the top 10 "popular" Webtoons on July 1, 2026 openly use AI art?
Probability%20 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD51 d
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
Open
Will North Korea enter the 2026 US-Iran war as a belligerent?
Probability%8 Yes
28 people · MANIFOLD51 d
Created by: 5 Nisan 2026 10:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?
Probability%96 Yes
70 people · MANIFOLD34 d
Created by: 25 Mart 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
SEIU "billionaire tax" qualifies for the November 2026 California ballot
Probability%89 Yes
45 people · MANIFOLD45 d
Created by: 28 Mart 2026 04:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
Probability%63 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 10 Nisan 2026 19:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May?
Probability%9 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 03:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?
Probability%46 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 22:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before July?
Probability%60 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 11 Nisan 2026 04:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?
Probability%51 Yes
50 d
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 19:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?
Probability%42 Yes
25 people · MANIFOLD56 d
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 07:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?
Probability%76 Yes
49 d
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 13:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will the Flexport internal prediction market on freight rates have alpha (as per their CEO)?
Probability%80 Yes
41 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 12 Nisan 2026 19:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Battle of the version numbers: OpenAI still leads Anthropic (5.2>4.5), through til mid 2026?
Probability%97 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will iran hit USA before june
Probability%79 Yes
21 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 1 Nisan 2026 19:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Probability%87 Yes
8d 13h
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the Virginia Redistricting Referendum be certified by June 30th?
Probability%10 Yes
69 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?
Probability%4 Yes
7d 13h
Created by: 12 Nisan 2026 20:15 GMT+3
Open
Evo Morales arrested by May 31
Probability%23 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 14:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Marc Andreessen publicly breaks with Trump by mid 2026
Probability%6 Yes
20 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
Probability%5 Yes
49 d
Created by: 8 Nisan 2026 12:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Clear evidence by June 1st 2026 that Donald Trump was treated with Leqembi
Probability%4 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD21d 13h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 03:15 GMT+3
Open
Will "Gachiakuta" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?
Probability%8 Yes
11d 13h
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Probability%19 Yes
49 d
Created by: 12 Nisan 2026 10:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Probability%84 Yes
8d 13h
Created by: 11 Nisan 2026 07:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?
Probability%96 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 7 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will it become common to carry separate devices to enable AI listening to self outputs by mid 2026
Probability%8 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
US bank failure by June 30?
Probability%26 Yes
49 d
Created by: 11 Nisan 2026 19:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will JD Vance update the cover of his book Communion before it's released?
Probability%27 Yes
17 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 16 Nisan 2026 16:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
2d 13h
Created by: 11 Nisan 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?
Probability%4 Yes
49 d
Created by: 11 Nisan 2026 05:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Probability%68 Yes
2d 13h
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 15:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Claude Code be available on the Pro plan on June 1?
Probability%90 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD21d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 15:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
will stranger return me $53?
Probability%6 Yes
44 people · MANIFOLD23d 9h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 15:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
US Govt acquires 5% of Boeing by 6/30/26?
Probability%5 Yes
17 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 17:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by May 31?
Probability%27 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 17:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the ICE deployment in Minnesota be substantially reduced by June 1, 2026?
Probability%96 Yes
34 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 31 Mart 2026 08:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will the iPhone 18 include a model with no charging port?
Probability%7 Yes
32 people · MANIFOLD81 d
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?
Probability%2 Yes
35 d
Created by: 13 Nisan 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary?
Probability%87 Yes
50 d
Created by: 11 Nisan 2026 13:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?
Probability%17 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?
Probability%31 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 05:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026?
Probability%11 Yes
49 d
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 04:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will a photo be released of trump having sexual relations with Bill Clinton?
Probability%5 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD21d 11h
Created by: 16 Nisan 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Chirayu Rana divorced?
Probability%13 Yes
49 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
Probability%27 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
US x China tariff agreement by May 31st? [Polymarket]
Probability%61 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the USA win the 2026 IMO?
Probability%11 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD81 d
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 07:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Delaware business entity registrations in 2025 lower than 2024
Probability%85 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD51 d
Created by: 11 Nisan 2026 02:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
50 d
Created by: 16 Nisan 2026 17:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?
Probability%2 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 04:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Rivian R2 deliveries begin before June 15, 2026?
Probability%76 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 18:15 GMT+3
Open
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?
Probability%96 Yes
49 d
Created by: 11 Nisan 2026 14:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
Probability%92 Yes
60 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 12 Nisan 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
In the boys, will Marie Moreau kill Homelander?
Probability%3 Yes
14 people · MANIFOLD9d 8h
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 07:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Anthropic reach 50 billion in ARR by the end of June?
Probability%74 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 19:15 GMT+3
Open
Grok uses Telegram channels as one of content sources by mid-2026?
Probability%40 Yes
10 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 04:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Anthropic introduces a individual subscription beyond the 20x Max plan before June 1st?
Probability%22 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 14:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?
Probability%8 Yes
49 d
Created by: 16 Nisan 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?
Probability%8 Yes
49 d
Created by: 16 Nisan 2026 06:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
Probability%72 Yes
50 d
Created by: 7 Nisan 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?
Probability%95 Yes
49 d
Created by: 13 Nisan 2026 13:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will LME cobalt metal official cash settlement price exceed 55 USD per kg on June 30, 2026?
Probability%77 Yes
14 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 11 Nisan 2026 22:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%98 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 13 Nisan 2026 23:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Anthropic's next ARR figure show an accelerating % growth rate?
Probability%87 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD8d 1h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?
Probability%28 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 17 Nisan 2026 16:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
iMessage, phone, gmail rendered unusable within 90 days due to spam
Probability%2 Yes
25 people · MANIFOLD3d 2h
Created by: 15 Nisan 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Norstein finish The Overcoat before his death?
Probability%23 Yes
10 people · MANIFOLD4d 18h
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Probability%42 Yes
49 d
Created by: 16 Nisan 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%33 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 12:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will JD Vance be president for two weeks by mid 2027
Probability%6 Yes
24 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 21:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the Michael Jackson biopic include a white Michael Jackson?
Probability%11 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 22:15 GMT+3
Open
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30?
Probability%3 Yes
49 d
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 04:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
In "be as good as your word," is Iomedae from Golarion?
Probability%80 Yes
22 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will we see a destroyed tanker in the Straight of Hormuz by mid 2026?
Probability%37 Yes
20 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Probability%9 Yes
49 d
Created by: 17 Nisan 2026 02:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Iran charges "Strait of Hormuz fees" on June 1?
Probability%56 Yes
27 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 15 Nisan 2026 20:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
An LLM or AI will be credited as coauthor on a paper in Nature or Science by mid 2026
Probability%14 Yes
25 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 15 Nisan 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will there be a trillionaire by June 2026?
Probability%10 Yes
25 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 21:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will the S&P 500 enter bear market territory (20%+ decline from peak) by June 30, 2026?
Probability%17 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 17 Nisan 2026 21:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%54 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 18 Nisan 2026 01:15 GMT+3
Open
Was sonnet 5 meant to be released instead of Opus 4.6?
Probability%3 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 15 Nisan 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Omar Aboutaleb (0mar) hit Candidate Master before June 12
Probability%41 Yes
55 people · MANIFOLD35 d
Created by: 18 Nisan 2026 19:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Jerome Powell leave his role before the end of his term?
Probability%4 Yes
61 people · MANIFOLD4d 20h
Created by: 31 Mart 2026 16:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Credible reporting confirms former Norwegian PM Thorbjørn Jagland attempted suicide following Epstein files revelation?
Probability%48 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD13d 12h
Created by: 2 Nisan 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Russian attacks or invades Lithuania by mid 2026
Probability%2 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 07:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Probability%47 Yes
52 people · MANIFOLD20d 12h
Created by: 19 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will global carbon emissions decrease in 2025 compared to 2024 levels?
Probability%22 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 22:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will a physics competition for high school students be hosted at MIT by mid 2026?
Probability%11 Yes
29 people · MANIFOLD51 d
Created by: 17 Nisan 2026 18:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?
Probability%3 Yes
49 d
Created by: 16 Nisan 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Probability%5 Yes
50 d
Created by: 18 Nisan 2026 05:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Iran sink a US Navy vessel (surface or submarine) before June 1st 2026?
Probability%9 Yes
25 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 08:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will the ID verification requirement for new users be reversed?
Probability%20 Yes
93 people · MANIFOLD59 d
Created by: 11 Nisan 2026 07:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Starliner have crew on it next time it's launched to orbit?
Probability%2 Yes
28 people · MANIFOLD51 d
Created by: 18 Nisan 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? [Polymarket]
Probability%18 Yes
396 people · MANIFOLD233 d
Created by: 20 Mart 2026 15:42 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will GPT-image-2 's LMArena score drop meaningfully, 1 month after release?
Probability%92 Yes
21 people · MANIFOLD10d 10h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
US Treasury announces new capital controls before May 22, 2026
Probability%12 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD11d 13h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?
Probability%16 Yes
49 d
Created by: 19 Nisan 2026 01:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
BLS pauses monthly job report by June 2026?
Probability%35 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 15 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
Probability%6 Yes
21d 13h
Created by: 19 Nisan 2026 05:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?
Probability%13 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 16:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Bitcoin $82K in May?
Probability%96 Yes
43 people · MANIFOLD20d 20h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Department of Education eliminated by June 2026
Probability%4 Yes
46 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 19 Nisan 2026 06:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
SSI/Ilya ship an AI before July 2026?
Probability%10 Yes
30 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 10 Nisan 2026 22:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30? [Polymarket]
Probability%57 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 19 Nisan 2026 13:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?
Probability%4 Yes
49 d
Created by: 18 Nisan 2026 14:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Probability%5 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 18 Nisan 2026 14:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?
Probability%5 Yes
12 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 00:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will AI be regularly used to diagnose complex diseases by 2028?
Probability%26 Yes
31 people · MANIFOLD51 d
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 07:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will OpenAI employ more people on 8/1/26 than it does on 8/1/24?
Probability%83 Yes
53 people · MANIFOLD82 d
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 07:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
US Recession in 2025?
Probability%4 Yes
75 people · MANIFOLD18d 20h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 01:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?
Probability%68 Yes
370 people · MANIFOLD20d 12h
Created by: 21 Mart 2026 19:11 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Probability%14 Yes
80 d
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 18:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will there be student tickets for Manifest 2026?
Probability%8 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD36 d
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 00:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will a functioning Golden Ratio integration in Unreal Engine 5 be published by Neural CEO before [17.07.2026]?
Probability%38 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD67 d
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 08:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026?
Probability%38 Yes
47 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Dmitry Muratov be dead before 26 May 2026?
Probability%6 Yes
12 people · MANIFOLD14d 13h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?
Probability%94 Yes
20 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 18 Nisan 2026 01:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?
Probability%53 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
49 d
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 08:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Manifold be more accurate than the Veritasium crowd-sourced estimate?
Probability%50 Yes
72 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 08:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will many open source advocates agree frontier models have crossed capability thresholds too dangerous to open source?
Probability%2 Yes
64 people · MANIFOLD21d 17h
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 07:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Probability%25 Yes
41 d
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 07:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will AD+PD win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?
Probability%61 Yes
18d 13h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Republican Party?
Probability%3 Yes
21d 13h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Probability%11 Yes
50 d
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 16:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?
Probability%6 Yes
18d 13h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 02:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Tiger Zhang beat Andrew Lin on the 18.905 final?
Probability%35 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD21d 13h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 00:15 GMT+3
Open
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?
Probability%10 Yes
49 d
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?
Probability%3 Yes
26d 13h
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 17:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 in May?
Probability%51 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 11:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Switzerland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%8 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 20:15 GMT+3
Open
Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?
Probability%81 Yes
49 d
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 04:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
Probability%28 Yes
71 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Probability%37 Yes
41 d
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May?
Probability%5 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 18:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?
Probability%9 Yes
17 people · MANIFOLD23d 6h
Created by: 7 Nisan 2026 05:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?
Probability%5 Yes
49 d
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 12:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Probability%47 Yes
36 d
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 21:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?
Probability%77 Yes
28 people · MANIFOLD68 d
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 03:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Bitcoin $69K in May?
Probability%17 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD20d 20h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Probability%37 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 13:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Bitcoin $84K in May?
Probability%74 Yes
41 people · MANIFOLD20d 20h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?
Probability%44 Yes
13:40:13
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
Probability%56 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 22:15 GMT+3
Open
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Probability%2 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 14:15 GMT+3
Open
Mark Zuckerberg either divorced or separated by July 1, 2026
Probability%7 Yes
38 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 14:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Les Wexner charged by June 30?
Probability%7 Yes
49 d
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 14:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?
Probability%16 Yes
21 people · MANIFOLD18d 20h
Created by: 14 Nisan 2026 02:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Is Intology's Locus really better than humans at AI R&D?
Probability%3 Yes
13 people · MANIFOLD8d 14h
Created by: 16 Nisan 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May?
Probability%5 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 13:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Probability%94 Yes
19d 19h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 02:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
New CEO at three of 13 top companies by Mid 2026
Probability%19 Yes
10 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Macron's english wikipedia article mention the 2025 apparent domestic violence incident by mid 2026
Probability%8 Yes
16 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 10:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
Probability%73 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 10:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Bitcoin reach $90K USD in May 2026?
Probability%23 Yes
38 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 2 Mayıs 2026 21:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
Probability%46 Yes
35 d
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 21:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will WTI crude oil cost more than $150/barrel before June? (According to investing.com)
Probability%6 Yes
94 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 23 Mart 2026 00:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]
Probability%49 Yes
572 people · MANIFOLD86 d
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 12:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Switzerland pass the referendum 'No to a 10 Million Switzerland'?
Probability%33 Yes
24 people · MANIFOLD81 d
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?
Probability%8 Yes
27 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 16:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?
Probability%13 Yes
24 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 4 Mayıs 2026 22:15 GMT+3
Open
The USA loses an aircraft carrier through mid 2026
Probability%7 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Bitcoin $65K in May?
Probability%7 Yes
26 people · MANIFOLD20d 20h
Created by: 1 Mayıs 2026 19:15 GMT+3
Open
Will the United States government admit there are alien UFOs by July 4?
Probability%2 Yes
32 people · MANIFOLD53 d
Created by: 9 Nisan 2026 13:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?
Probability%24 Yes
155 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 4 Nisan 2026 12:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?
Probability%74 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 23:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%31 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
Probability%11 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 13:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Probability%3 Yes
49 d
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 13:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will the US and Iran jointly announce a nuclear framework agreement by June 30, 2026?
Probability%27 Yes
19 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 3 Mayıs 2026 05:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
Probability%22 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 14:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?
Probability%7 Yes
10 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 11 Mayıs 2026 01:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026?
Probability%61 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will the U.S. Senate pass the recently proposed legislation to curb prediction markets before June 1, 2026?
Probability%15 Yes
20 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 24 Mart 2026 21:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
At the end of Juneteenth 2026 (June 19) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?
Probability%5 Yes
15 people · MANIFOLD39 d
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 11:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will King Charles III outlive Trump?
Probability%69 Yes
33 people · MANIFOLD60 d
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?
Probability%62 Yes
7d 13h
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 15:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Khamzat Chimaev takedown Sean Strickland within the first 10 seconds of the fight ?
Probability%3 Yes
28 people · MANIFOLD08:38:13
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 16:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?
Probability%10 Yes
40 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 19:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Probability%51 Yes
84 d
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 01:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?
Probability%84 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will this market appear on a mug?
Probability%37 Yes
18 people · MANIFOLD54 d
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 00:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 in May?
Probability%20 Yes
20d 17h
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 03:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?
Probability%90 Yes
65 people · MANIFOLD81 d
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 20:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
China uses military force to take Taiwan by July 1, 2026
Probability%5 Yes
17 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 20:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
Probability%3 Yes
49 d
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 20:15 GMT+3
Open
The 2026 Australian Federal Budget will decrease the CGT discount to 33%
Probability%61 Yes
12 people · MANIFOLD2d 13h
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 07:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
Probability%2 Yes
49 d
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?
Probability%50 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 07:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will Bitcoin hit $100.000 again before July 1, 2026?
Probability%14 Yes
21 people · MANIFOLD50 d
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 06:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Bitcoin $85K in May?
Probability%57 Yes
27 people · MANIFOLD20d 13h
Created by: 6 Mayıs 2026 21:15 GMT+3
🌍 WorldOpen
Will the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire (starting May 6) hold for at least 7 days?
Probability%3 Yes
24 people · MANIFOLD2d 13h
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Probability%17 Yes
8d 13h
Created by: 11 Mayıs 2026 09:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability%17 Yes
4d 13h
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 08:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?
Probability%8 Yes
49 d
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 08:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Gemini perfect score on IMO 2026?
Probability%52 Yes
54 people · MANIFOLD80 d
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 22:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Paloma Valencia place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Probability%23 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 11 Mayıs 2026 05:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?
Probability%3 Yes
49 d
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 09:15 GMT+3
💻 TechnologyOpen
Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight?
Probability%4 Yes
20 people · MANIFOLD49 d
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 00:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada?
Probability%32 Yes
43 people · MANIFOLD21d 12h
Created by: 22 Mart 2026 04:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next?
Probability%33 Yes
27 people · MANIFOLD19d 21h
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 09:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?
Probability%9 Yes
28d 13h
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 03:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Will Bitcoin close above $80,000 on any day between April 16 and May 31, 2026?
Probability%97 Yes
24 people · MANIFOLD20d 11h
Created by: 5 Mayıs 2026 05:15 GMT+3
📊 EconomyOpen
Bitcoin $67K in May?
Probability%11 Yes
11 people · MANIFOLD20d 20h
Created by: 7 Mayıs 2026 11:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Probability%35 Yes
22d 13h
Created by: 8 Mayıs 2026 01:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?
Probability%36 Yes
22d 13h
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 05:15 GMT+3
🏛️ PoliticsOpen
Will Kevin Hern be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
Probability%94 Yes
35 d
Created by: 31 Mart 2026 21:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Probability%48 Yes
3d 13h
Created by: 10 Mayıs 2026 04:15 GMT+3
📰 Current AffairsOpen
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?
Probability%2 Yes
49 d
Created by: 3 Nisan 2026 11:15 GMT+3
Open
Will Putin visit China by May 31?
Probability%61 Yes
19d 13h
Created by: 9 Mayıs 2026 06:15 GMT+3